by the cia, and other intelligence organizations when i worked for three years at the national security council, and then as ambassador, i would say we're good at some things and we're bad at other things. so we're goods at kind of big behavioral societal stuff. i think we have pretty good tools for that. we're not as good as you rightly pointed out in your earlier segment at predicting the individual behavior and decision-making of one actor. that is president putin. we did have conversations, just so you know, when i was still in the government, about the likelihood, probability, concerns of him going into crimea, into ukraine. we had those discussions. but to predict that, to say, oh, i know with certainty he's going to go into crimea on this date, we're not good at that. you're right. we're not good at that because we don't have, you know, a lot of connectivity with president putin personally. he's a very isolated individual.